Talk:Piercing Strike
Probability of piercing strikes?
- Has anyone beside myself started a statistical analysis on the subject?
With Piercing Strike and Critical Hit both at 96, out of 203 attempts to hit:
- 20 miss
- 183 hits (including crits and piercings)
- 49 piercings
- 2 crits
This data set is too small to be sure of anything but if I extrapolate linearly to a Piercing Strike ability of 100 and I put aside misses (assuming that piercing chance is evaluated on actual hits and not upfront), I obtain a probability of:
- 27.89%
Use this number with caution, I didn't even compute the margin of error.
-Phoxtrot 08:37, 26 March 2008 (UTC)
How did you bother to miss at all?
From what I know, Piercing Strike should lurk somewhere around 33%. Also, I believe you need more attack as you seem to have missed more than 2% of the time. I believe you will need more data. CHiNback - [ Talk - Message - PM ]
For 183, using your actual pierce rate, I get an error of +/-6.5% for a 'pretty confident' or +/-8.55% for a 'really finicky' margin. Do you have a source for the 33% figure, CHiNback? Because if someone's already run it, we can save ourselves a lot of work. --JoetheRat 18:11, 4 April 2008 (BST)
Statistical Analysis
795 success out 2972 successfull PvP strikes with various Piercing Strike enhancement values.
If I postulate that the Piercing Strike chance is directly linearly dependant on the enhancement value, I obtain a chance of 26.81% for a Piercing Strike enhancement at 100%.
It seems however that the skills and enhancements work in steps, so if I consider that your enhancement value is rounded down to the nearest multiple of 10 before being converted into a % chance, I obtain a chance of 26.85% for an enhancement at 100%.
The lowest skill value seen (so far) for which Piercing Strike kicked-in : 94 (but this doesn't mean anything as the vast majority of PvP fights I have recorded had both contestants at 100 for Piercing Strike)
I haven't computed the different likelyness values and all that for the different candidate algorithms but I would guess that each bach of 4 points in Piercing Strike enhancement gives you an additionnal 1% chance to benefit from a Piercing Strike for a maximum of 25%. (I don't realy expect the actual chance to precisely match the 26% I have encoutered.)
