Talk:Piercing Strike

Probability of piercing strikes?

• Has anyone beside myself started a statistical analysis on the subject?

With Piercing Strike and Critical Hit both at 96, out of 203 attempts to hit:

• 20 miss
• 183 hits (including crits and piercings)
• 49 piercings
• 2 crits

This data set is too small to be sure of anything but if I extrapolate linearly to a Piercing Strike ability of 100 and I put aside misses (assuming that piercing chance is evaluated on actual hits and not upfront), I obtain a probability of:

• 27.89%

Use this number with caution, I didn't even compute the margin of error.

-Phoxtrot 08:37, 26 March 2008 (UTC)

How did you bother to miss at all? From what I know, Piercing Strike should lurk somewhere around 33%. Also, I believe you need more attack as you seem to have missed more than 2% of the time. I believe you will need more data.                  CHiNback - [ Talk - Message - PM ]

For 183, using your actual pierce rate, I get an error of +/-6.5% for a 'pretty confident' or +/-8.55% for a 'really finicky' margin. Do you have a source for the 33% figure, CHiNback? Because if someone's already run it, we can save ourselves a lot of work. --JoetheRat 18:11, 4 April 2008 (BST)